Kansas & Central Plains Drought

Kansas and much of the central Plains are in the second year of severe to extreme drought conditions. The recent unseasonably warm and dry spell has only exacerbated the drought, especially across central and western Kansas. The U.S. Drought Monitor, through December 4th, shows much of Kansas in extreme to exceptional drought now. The only exceptions being far eastern and parts of north central and northeast Kansas.

Over the past 71 days, Wichita, Kansas has only received 0.87" of precipitation for the period, September 27th through December 6th.  This ranks as the 8th driest year for that period of record, dating back to 1888. Much of the western high Plains have received even less precipitation and in some cases little more than a trace of rain or snow in the past 60 days or more.

60 Day Precip Total (Oct 7-Dec 7, 2012)

The drought has not only had a detrimental impact on agriculture and crops across Kansas and the Plains but also has greatly reduced water levels on reservoirs and rivers, with many areas reporting very low and in some cases record low stream flows.

Average Stream Flows Compared to Normal

While some Kansans, including some meteorologists, have referred to the latest stretch of dry and often unseasonably warm weather as "nice", it has been anything but nice to our agriculturally rich heartland and our latest Winter wheat crop.  Despite the ongoing two year drought, parts of Kansas did experience some beneficial moisture last Fall (2011) which helped the 2012 Winter wheat crop. For example, in south central Kansas, Wichita received 5.15" of precipitation during October-November, 2011. This occurred during the early stages after planting when the wheat sprouts before going dormant for the Winter. However, this Fall was much drier with only 0.87" of precipitation recorded at Wichita for the same two month period.

This lack of moisture has impacted the current Winter wheat crop. The Kansas Agricultural Statistics Service indicated a couple weeks ago that 25% of the Winter wheat was in poor to very poor condition, 46% in fair condition, and only 28% in good condition (only 1% was rated excellent).

While the short term forecast is at least calling for a return to more seasonal temperatures across Kansas and the Plains through mid-December, the more frequent upper level trough and frontal passages will remain mostly moisture starved at low levels. This will preclude any widespread, meaningful precipitation leading up to Christmas. The impact and scope of the drought extends well beyond Kansas. From agricultural crops and livestock to very low stream/river flows for navigation, these so called "nice" dry and mild days of the Fall and early Winter have only exacerbated the ongoing extreme to exceptional drought across the nations heartland.   The real economic fallout from such a devastating drought may soon out-weigh the perceived "niceness" of these dry and unseasonably mild days, but likely not until it more directly impacts our pocket books or way of life.  The old adages, "...we will eventually pay for this..." and "...be careful what you wish for..." are probably apropos for those that have relished these dry and warm stretches of weather this Fall and early Winter. However, if this drought continues on well into 2013 or beyond, sentiment in growing numbers will likely change in support of "nice" rainy days.  However, for some, perception has yet to become that reality!