Hurricane Dorian Update - Saturday, 2 am EDT

Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for details.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Drought Wiped out across Kansas

It look a few years, however frequent heavy rainfall over the past couple of months has effectively wiped out the drought across Kansas and a good part of the Plains and Midwest. Some locations across Texas and Oklahoma received over 35 inches of rainfall in the past 60 days, ending June 22, 2015.

60 Day Rainfall ending June 22, 2015

Kansas & Central Plains Drought

Kansas and much of the central Plains are in the second year of severe to extreme drought conditions. The recent unseasonably warm and dry spell has only exacerbated the drought, especially across central and western Kansas. The U.S. Drought Monitor, through December 4th, shows much of Kansas in extreme to exceptional drought now. The only exceptions being far eastern and parts of north central and northeast Kansas.

Over the past 71 days, Wichita, Kansas has only received 0.87" of precipitation for the period, September 27th through December 6th.  This ranks as the 8th driest year for that period of record, dating back to 1888. Much of the western high Plains have received even less precipitation and in some cases little more than a trace of rain or snow in the past 60 days or more.

60 Day Precip Total (Oct 7-Dec 7, 2012)

The drought has not only had a detrimental impact on agriculture and crops across Kansas and the Plains but also has greatly reduced water levels on reservoirs and rivers, with many areas reporting very low and in some cases record low stream flows.

Average Stream Flows Compared to Normal

While some Kansans, including some meteorologists, have referred to the latest stretch of dry and often unseasonably warm weather as "nice", it has been anything but nice to our agriculturally rich heartland and our latest Winter wheat crop.  Despite the ongoing two year drought, parts of Kansas did experience some beneficial moisture last Fall (2011) which helped the 2012 Winter wheat crop. For example, in south central Kansas, Wichita received 5.15" of precipitation during October-November, 2011. This occurred during the early stages after planting when the wheat sprouts before going dormant for the Winter. However, this Fall was much drier with only 0.87" of precipitation recorded at Wichita for the same two month period.

This lack of moisture has impacted the current Winter wheat crop. The Kansas Agricultural Statistics Service indicated a couple weeks ago that 25% of the Winter wheat was in poor to very poor condition, 46% in fair condition, and only 28% in good condition (only 1% was rated excellent).

While the short term forecast is at least calling for a return to more seasonal temperatures across Kansas and the Plains through mid-December, the more frequent upper level trough and frontal passages will remain mostly moisture starved at low levels. This will preclude any widespread, meaningful precipitation leading up to Christmas. The impact and scope of the drought extends well beyond Kansas. From agricultural crops and livestock to very low stream/river flows for navigation, these so called "nice" dry and mild days of the Fall and early Winter have only exacerbated the ongoing extreme to exceptional drought across the nations heartland.   The real economic fallout from such a devastating drought may soon out-weigh the perceived "niceness" of these dry and unseasonably mild days, but likely not until it more directly impacts our pocket books or way of life.  The old adages, "...we will eventually pay for this..." and "...be careful what you wish for..." are probably apropos for those that have relished these dry and warm stretches of weather this Fall and early Winter. However, if this drought continues on well into 2013 or beyond, sentiment in growing numbers will likely change in support of "nice" rainy days.  However, for some, perception has yet to become that reality!    

 

Funnel clouds over Wichita on April 4th, 2012

An interesting afternoon for an hour or so, as several funnel clouds hovered over southwest parts of the Wichita area. I refer you to the article which I link, Funnels over Wichita on April 4th, 2012

My son and I saw 3 funnels at one time, though one in particular persisted for about 15 minutes, just a few miles south of the Wichita Mid-Continent airport and National Weather Service office.

Mixed Message of Safety during Hurricane Irene

As I watch the events of Hurricane Irene unfold (making landfall in North Carolina) I am continually reminded about how the media continues to send out mixed messages about the need to heed weather warnings seriously.  In this case it regards  hurricane Irene, however we have seen it with winter storms, tornadoes, floods, etc.  The Weather Channel has "wall to wall" coverage of Irene with a near continuous rolling stream of going from one "live" shot (reporter) to another, near the eye of the storm and in advance of Irene's approach.  While the winds are now only minimal hurricane force, they are still potentially deadly from flying debri, as well as the other threats of storm surge and flooding. Yet, we have these meteorologists reporting from the beach or in a community, telling folks how bad it is, and to heed evacuation notices.  You can occasionally see a vehicle or two pass in the background of some of these shots and the reporter will comment to the effect that "...we still have some folks out here doing stupid things by driving around in the hurricane..."   I know the media will reference the First Amendment as to their right to report on just about anything.  However, when does it become just pure hypocritical negligence and disregard for common sense to have these reporters (especially meteorologists) out in the worst of these storms, yet tell folks it is too dangerous to be outside and to take shelter?

The media (which now includes the meteorological community like the Weather Channel and even local TV and radio stations) continually send folks out into the worst of what mother nature has to offer, while at the same time telling people to stay indoors, or move inland, etc.  We expect the general public to use common sense, yet the media is screaming to all of us that they do not possess it!  It is no wonder that others want to be "out in the elements" too and witness Mother Nature's wrath.  It does not stop there either.  The meteorological community in general, in concert with the media, also tell people to send in their storm shots of a tornado, or video of damage, flooding, blizzards, etc.  The more dramatic, the better chance it will get on television (local to national coverage)!  They are encouraging and soliciting folks to document this dangerous weather for them!

We should take a page from something good the media (sports) did probably over a decade ago. When someone streaks across a baseball field, or jumps out of the stands and run the 100 yard dash down the grid iron, the camera no longer shows these individuals, in hopes to mitigate further interest of others do so in the future. It is based on the premise of "mimic behavior".  This is really no different than what a child does after he or she gets attention after performing some act (be it good or bad).  Adults in many ways show similar traits at times, which can be advantageous or detrimental, whether it is mimicking good business practices, or gaining attention by following the stupidity of others (the aforementioned sports analogy). Some of the general public, for which the media supposedly serves, are only mimicking what they see the media do, by going out to document these dangerous storms. In my opinion, the media and an increasing portion of the meteorological community are actually promoting this "mimic behavior" by a combination of their direct solicitation and reporting of these dangerous events. The media is not immune to mimic behavior themselves and to a great degree is why more and more media outlets are doing these live remote reports in very dangerous weather. They see others (competition) doing it, and whether for ratings, money, etc, other stations or media outlets follow suite.

I am calling on the media and the meteorological community to consider the effects of their actions, by this bombardment of remote live reporting of serious and potentially deadly weather events. Common sense would dictate that it goes for all people (media included) to seek shelter, if these meteorological events are truly life-threatening. Hopefully it will not have to take serious injury or a fatality (of one these reporters) to really make an impression, that we all need to take heed.

My first blog :-)

While I have often thought of starting a blog, journal, or notes on topics and themes i deemed important, I have put fingers to keyboard and will attempt to do so via a "blog" post.  We'll see how it goes...